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Monday 18 June 2012

Popular Imagination: the Apocalypse of Doom


‘Every time history repeats itself the price goes up.’

  Ronald Wright, A Short History of Progress (2005)


I find one of the most interesting aspects of the popular imagination is the fascination and appetite for tales of war, catastrophe, doom, destruction and apocalypse. Like many men and women in the world I enjoy a good science fiction film or novel every now and again. The eminent historian of British future-war literature, I.F. Clarke, believed that fictional prophesies and future imaginings were capable of providing a unique insight into the human psyche – and I tend to agree with him. However, one thing that I believe rings true in over a century of sensationally popular science fiction and dystopian literature is that though fascinating and thrilling, such imaginings are rarely capable of predicting a complete and accurate world of tomorrow.

 Evolving Conceptions of the Future of Our World


Recently, I taught a seminar on ‘environmental history’ to my first year students. This is an area of study my PhD supervisor is moving into, and though many students struggled to see how this topic was history at all, some were inspired and fascinated by this cultural investigation into human interaction with the world around us. The thing that struck me most was the ideological change that occurred, very recently, when it dawned upon us that humans were capable of impacting upon the whole world and changing the planet for worse, or for better. As eminent historian J.R. McNeill so poignantly showed, as late as 1930 the Nobel Prize winning American physicist, Robert Millikan stated in 1930 that there was no possibility that humanity was capable of doing real harm to ‘anything so gigantic as the earth’. In that same year Thomas Midgeley invented CFCs (chloroflourocarbons) which would decades later be banned for their annihilation of areas of the earths ozone layer – the primary ‘life support’ system of the earth.[1]  From this introduction into environmental history I learned how a paradigm shift in human understanding of our impact on the world resulted from the dawning of nuclear warfare. 

Over the 1950s and 1960s the USA and USSR became increasingly antagonistic and the proliferation and testing of nuclear bombs escalated hugely. In one year, 1962 (the same year as the Cuban Missile Crisis), the two super-powers tested a total of 130 nuclear devices pushing the background level of radiation for the planet back up to the level of 1958 when the two powers had agreed to decrease testing due to this terrifying result.[2]  With the effects of nuclear fallout being made clear as a result of disasters like Chernobyl and Bikini Atoll, suddenly the human imagination was forced to recognize that technology had advanced so far as to be able not only to wipe out nations, but even to destroy our only home – Planet Earth. This shocking realisation was soon reflected in popular culture, with the meteoric rise in popularity of post-apocalyptic stories. On the Beach (novel: 1957; film: 1959) was one of the most important and popular stories of this genre, recounting a near-future world in the aftermath of World War III.[3] Its negative message, scenes of destruction, dead cities, and state aided mass-suicides struck home in the Anglophone world. Since the 1960s we have been treated to a regular supply of such apocalyptic dramas as I Am Legend (several versions from 1954), Dr. Strangelove (1964), Threads (1984), and The Terminator franchise (1984-2009). 

For the nuclear generation, the concerns were clear. Fears were openly expressed about global apocalypse at the hands of man. However, with the end of the Cold War, the seeming lack of imminent nuclear war left an ideas vacuum – an epistemic change occurred. A variety of new popular fears have entered into the vacuum which transcend national boundaries: disease pandemics, economic disaster, environmental collapse, fuel shortages and global starvation. Many of the concerns of today are not new ones, but they have received surging interest as polemicists have looked anxiously to predict where next we are truly headed.

Two particular items have recently struck me as being typical of our current state of anxiety: the TV documentary ‘Surviving Progress (2011) - inspired by Ronald Wright’s A Short History of Progress (2005)[4] - and Ian Bremmer’s headline-stealing book, Every Nation for Itself: Winners and Losers in a G-Zero World (2012): 

Surviving Progress
Ronald Wright theorised that the human addiction to progress at all costs has trapped us in an endless cycle of boom and bust which will eventually lead to societal collapse. ‘Surviving Progress’ asserts that human obsession with technological progress as the answer to economic and social problems results in on-going ‘progress traps’ where ‘alluring technologies serve immediate needs, but ransom the future’. Furthermore, it is argued that the absence of a valuation of the environment, flora, fauna and human life in accepted economic dogma means that blind belief in the benevolence of the market is a disastrous mistake humans have made, and continue to make. This outlook is depressing in its plausibility.

Every Nation for Itself
Similarly, Bremmer’s economic prediction argues that in future the nations of the world will be unable or unwilling to participate in global dialogue and cooperation. He argues that as the USA declines from superpowerdom, no other country will be able to assume the same level of control or influence.  Going from a G20 world to a ‘G-Zero’ – a decade long power vacuum – would have dire consequences for world – acting as ‘an incubator of catastrophe.’ A lack of international cooperation, it is argued, could result in epidemics, the implosion of North Korea, increasing terrorist attacks and wars over scarce food and resources.[5]

These academic polemics tie into long-running discourses about societal collapse,[6] economic uncertainty and existential threats to our current world.[7] In the mass market, these concerns are most visibly expressed through television and film. Recent years have seen a new spate of such films featuring regular ‘paranoid’ themes which have experienced vast box-office or best-selling success: 
  • Post-apocalyptic Worlds: Cormac McCarthy’s The Road (novel: 2006; film: 2009); The Book of Eli (2009);
  • Alien Invasion=Human Frailty/Complacency: The War of the Worlds (film remake: 2005); Battle: Los Angeles (2011);
  • Pandemics: Contagion (2011); Twelve Monkeys (1995);
  • Environmental collapse: Waterworld (1995); The Day After Tomorrow (2004); Supervolcano (2005); Sunshine (2007);
  • Extraterrestrial Disasters: Deep Impact (1998); Armageddon (1998); Knowing (2009);
The themes here evidently reflect the major anxieties of our own times, and exhibit the success of playing to them.

Often, science fiction looking further into the distant future has predicted dark consequences for humanity as a reflection of contemporary societal uncertainties. The Alien films were both progenitors and inheritors of a vast quantity of exceedingly popular films and productions imagining future human colonisation of the galaxy. Alien (1979), along with Silent Running (1972), Logan’s Run (1976) and Blade Runner (1982), is the best in a highly regarded and influential sub-genre of dystopian future imaginings which tell us much about the times in which they were conceived. These examples of space-age dystopia represent two major themes of their time: (1) the rapid expansion of the space race; and (2) increasing concern over environmental damage and voracious human expansion.[8] These stories depict worlds where humans have been developed incredibly advanced technology, yet still suffer from the cruelties and hardships which blight the ‘human condition’: be they the corporate greed (Alien), the ‘Frankenstein-inspired arrogance of man(Blade Runner), problems of population control (Logan’s Run) or environmental exhaustion (Silent Running).  Their message seems to be (in agreement with Surviving Progress) that despite technological advancement, the future should not be assumed to be a better place. 

Sci-fi and disaster movies can tell us something about the state of mind of our current society. Such vastly popular films play on a common trope of destruction and disaster. In spite of the fact that people are fearful for the future, they seem to have a desire to see these events take place on the big screen. Although our current culture has its own unique flavour of disaster-concepts, this fear of the future has a legacy of over a century. Though all of these fictional tales were not written directly as polemics to correct the evils of the world, they are the cultural spear-tip of deeply latent concerns about the destructive nature of humanity.  As times change, so the concerns expressed in popular culture mutate and flex to meet the demands and desires of the popular imagination of the time. As I hope it is clear from the above examples, each generation of cultural creators plays upon the hopes, fears and imaginings of its consumers. This, I would strongly argue, is nothing new….


Future and Science Fiction in the Fin-de-Siecle (1880-1914)


Many literary historians see the period either side of 1900 as being remarkable for the vast number of works of future fiction and predictive forecasts. Although the limitations of Earth and modern science were little understood in this period, philosophers, artists and essayists shared the same deep sense of unease at what appeared to be an increasingly widespread decadence and fundamental anxiety affecting society. This can be seen both in contemporary journalism, as well as in the fictitious works of authors, painters, poets and musicians.[9]

Amongst the most influential literary genres were the utopian/dystopian world of the future, science fiction/prediction and the ‘tale of future war’. In European fiction writers were infected with a sense of change – whether for the better or for the worse. H.G. Wells and Jules Verne are perhaps the best-known authors of their generation today. They were prolific novelists, but in their work they also attempted to show people the future path of humanity, and warn against certain perceived ills. Wells’ many works imagined the progress of technology in war (The War in the Air, 1908), a possible ideal world-state (A Modern Utopia, 1905) and also the potential for destruction and disaster (War of the Worlds, 1898). Verne too was capable of imagining both positive and negative and both authors sought to imagine the capabilities of technological advancement, with the potential for both advancements and disasters in equal portions. There were many similar authors who sought to augur and propose the path to a better or worse society. Some stories flew way wide of the mark, with ideas of ‘Anglo-Saxon’ galactic colonisation,[10] communist utopias on Mars,[11] and poisonous galactic gas clouds enveloping earth.[12] More close to reality, writers attempted to imagine a near-future world. G.K. Chesterton’s more thoughtful The Napoleon of Notting Hill (1904) imagined Britain in 1984 as a largely unchanged yet completely un-democratic place.[13] J. McCullough’s Golf in the Year 2000 (1892) is something of a golf fanatic’s handbook and made some accurate predictions for daily life, while failing to envisage air travel, preferring high-speed undersea trains. McCullough suggests that in the year 2000 women have become the breadwinners and the men simply play golf all of the time – if only…!

In the press and periodicals of the time, the same currents of thought were commonplace. The words ‘next’, ‘future’, ‘ambition’, ‘menace’ and ‘danger’ were second nature to journalists. They embody the sense that in such a changing world something new was just around the corner. For example such headlines:
  • Henry Mann, ‘Europe’s Coming War: The Next Struggle Will Probably Spill Rivers of Blood. Forecast Of The Battle,’ Washington Post, April 8, 1894.
  • The Future Empire of the World. Is It To Be Anglo-Saxon or Russian? An American Author’s Plea,’ Daily Mirror, December 2, 1904.
  • ‘The Menace of the East,’ Contemporary Review 87, (January 1905), pp. 628-639.
  • ‘The Next World War. Startling Prophecy of Britain’s Battle with Germany. All Nations Involved,’ Daily Mirror, March 13, 1907.
  • ‘Does Germany Menace the World’s Peace?,’ North American Review 184:8 (April 1907), pp. 853-860.
In the 1890s and 1900s there was a seeming acceptance that things were changing and rarely was the assumption made that it would be for the better. As seen above, many believed that a ‘world war’ was increasingly likely. Henry Mann’s 1894 article (above) argued that France, by invading Italy, would create a world war.[14] In Mann’s vision, it would be France who would fight on German soil. The fascination with predictions of the future - and in particular of war - meant that there was a vast selection of prophecies available. Many, like Mann, were unsuccessful in many details. However, as Anatoly Karlin has noted, (only) three authors were close to hitting the nail on the head with predictions of the Great War: Iwan Bloch, Friedrich Engels and Pyotr Durnovo. These theorists accurately predicted the brutality of trench warfare (Bloch), the rise of total war and accurate death tolls (Engels); and combined alliances, war outcomes and their revolutionary repercussions (Durnovo).[15]
 
Though these three men did their utmost to warn anyone who would listen, they were unable to persuade the General Staff of any of the Great Powers to prepare appropriately for the war to come. Amongst the vastness of opinion and conjecture, this proves how difficult it is to believe any single tale. No single ‘scientific’ analysis ever got every detail correct. Though Bloch correctly saw the devastation and horror of the coming conflict, who was going to believe the thoughtful writings of a Polish railway financier pontificating in his spare time?

Conclusion


From these examples in disparate time periods I hope it is evident that the vast majority of predictions of the future are unable to envision a real and ‘deep’ version of times to come. For me this is a lesson we could well learn. When reading the works of respected and eminent economists, demographers, social scientists and biologists we should take care to note the extreme rarity of a fully correct forecast for human ‘progress’. This is not to say that there is no value in these works. Doubtless many of these authors will look back regretfully on the way their warnings were ignored. Perhaps they will even do so with a sense of schadenfreude. The difficulty for planners and decision makers, as well as individuals, is that there are so many threats and warnings – how can anyone possibly know which aspects will be accurate, and which are facile.[16]

Humans have been obsessing about the ‘apocalypse’ since the dawn of the species. Every time there is a bright light in the sky, or an unexplained red sunset there was always a shaman/witchdoctor/priest/scientist/story-teller there to explain it could well be the end of us all. As long as there is a human imagination, there will be humans envisioning their own doom. It just seems to be an underlying fact of our brief existence. The real interest from such predictions, be they scientific or flights of fancy, is what they tell us about the way people are thinking. They delve deep into the human psyche to explain the issues that matter most to society at the time of their inception. This is what makes them – and ‘us’ (humans) – so fascinating.

Patrick Longson (June 2012)

Edited by Jamie Perry.


[1] John McNeill, Something New Under the Sun: an environmental history of the twentieth century (Penguin, 2000), p. 357; Millikan is cited in E. Hobsbawm, The Age of Extremes, (New York, 1994), p. 534.
[2] See Ralph H. Lutts, ‘Chemical Fallout: Rachel Carson’s Silent Spring, Radioactive Fallout, and the Environmental Movement,’ Environmental Review 9:3 (1985), pp. 210-225.
[3] Neville Shute, On the Beach (Heinemann, 1957); On the Beach (film), 1959.
[4] http://survivingprogress.com/; Accesed: 14/06/2012 15:27.
[6] See e.g. Jared Diamond, Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed (2005).
[7] See Adam Curtis, ‘All Watched Over by Machines of Loving Grace‘ (TV Documentary (2011)).
[8] See Rachel Carson, Silent Spring (1963); and Paul Ehrlich, The Population Bomb (1971).
[9] See for example Edvard Munch’s Scream (1893), Oscar Wilde’s The Painting of Dorian Grey (1891) etc.
[10] R.W. Cole, The Struggle for Empire: a story of the year 2236 (Elliot Stock, 1900).
[11] Alexander Bogdanov, Red Star, (1908).
[12] Arthur Conan Doyle, The Poison Belt, (1913).
[13] Some critics believe this inspired Orwell’s date selection for his own novel 1984.
[14] Henry Mann, ‘Europe’s Coming War: The Next Struggle Will Probably Spill Rivers of Blood. Forecast Of The Battle,’ Washington Post, April 8, 1894.
[15] http://akarlin.com/2010/05/05/great-war-prophets/ Accessed: 18/06/2012 11:43
[16] A proviso here: I do not wish to be seen as any kind of environment-change sceptic. I have no reason to doubt the findings of serious academic and scientific investigation. However, in the realms of prediction, even hard facts can be difficult to turn into unquestionable predictions of the future and it is this knowledge gap that I seek to emphasise.